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- Yields Fall, Stocks and Rate Cut Odds Rise into This Week's Inflation Numbers
Yields Fall, Stocks and Rate Cut Odds Rise into This Week's Inflation Numbers
RiskReversal Recap: Monday, Sept 8th
RiskReversal Media
September 08, 2025
MARKET WRAP
It was a quiet session across the board, but the market was able to shake off Friday’s jitters following the Jobs number miss. The SPX once again tried pushing above 6500 only to fade and finish the day just beneath that level, much as it has done for the past few weeks. The Nasdaq was able to put in a new all time high. On the day: SPX +0.2%, QQQ +0.5%, and IWM +0.1%
Elsewhere, the US10YY gets ever so closer to 4% into the FOMC, now 4.05%. Gold continues higher, with a new all time high. The dollar was lower. Oil with a slight bounce. The VIX closed 15.11.
Notable Gainers: TTWO +4.% , MSCI +3.7%, UBER +3.5%, APP +12%, MRVL +3.9%, IBM +3.0%, WMT +1.8%
Notable Losers: TMUS -3.9%, PEP -3.2%, CVS -6.4%, CMG -3.5%
Crazy move of the day: OCTO +3000%
After hours: SPY and QQQ just barely lower after hours.
MRKT Call: Carter joins Dan to break down the latest jobs report, the moves in yields, and shifting Fed cut odds. They also dig into ORCL vs. NVDA and examine where we stand in the AI bubble through a historical lens.
RiskReversal Pod: Liz and Guy discuss Friday’s jobs number, the reaction in equities and yields, the change to Fed rate cut odds and whether all of this is a good thing for the market, or early signs of a potential recession.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Nasdaq hits new record, but S&P 500 is little changed ahead of inflation data this week (CNBC)
Treasury Secretary Bessent warns of massive refunds if the Supreme Court voids Trump tariffs (CNBC)
Is the U.K. a Canary in the Coal Mine for a Heavily Indebted World? (WSJ)
OpenAI Says Its Business Will Burn $115 Billion Through 2029 (The Information)
OpenAI is building an AI jobs platform that could challenge Microsoft’s LinkedIn (CNBC)
China Exports to US Slump 33% But Trade Surplus Heads for Record (Bloomberg)
BMW and Mercedes Take On Tesla With New Luxury SUVs (WSJ)
Chinese EV maker Xpeng eyes global launch of mass-market Mona brand in 2026 (CNBC)
WHAT’S NEXT?
As we flagged back on August 18th, there’s still plenty of overhead supply around 6500, and it’s going to take a real burst of upside momentum to clear it.
From Aug 18th: "Overall, the option backdrop has a ton of overhead supply at the 6500 level. It would take a lot of momentum to get above that near term, with Powell and Nvidia the obvious potential catalysts for that if it were to happen."
And that remains the case heading into PPI and CPI. But even those events only see a modest lift in implied vol—from around 10 to 12—and the same goes for the upcoming Fed meeting. In short, SPX feels stuck in the mud, with traders unwilling to bet on when the stalemate will break. That means the first real surprise—whether it comes from this week’s inflation numbers or elsewhere—could catch the market off guards (breaking out or selling off). Until that happens, the option market may have it right for now. BUT, that means there are plenty of inexpensive ways to position for the eventual move away from 6500, either into the FOMC, or out to year end. Should one want to. One way to look at the VIX right now is that it’s overpriced for how we’re currently trading, but likely now underpriced into year end because of that.
As for what’s next, there is a Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision tomorrow, something that may be more interesting than normal given the recent drama around BLS? That drops at 10am. We also get ORCL earnings after the close, currently priced at an 8.5% expected move, and a stock that’s seen some outsized moves on earnings in the recent past:
Tuesday, Sept 9th
10am: Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision
After-hours: ORCL 8.5%, GME 10%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: What The Charts Say: $SPX, $ORCL, $NVDA & "Growth Stocks"
Carter joins Dan to break down the latest jobs report, the moves in yields, and shifting Fed cut odds. They also dig into ORCL vs. NVDA and examine where we stand in the AI bubble through a historical lens.
Analysis - US10YY, US20YY, US30YY, TLT, SHY, ORCL, NVDA, AMZN, SMH, IGV
Learn more about our sponsor, MoneyLion.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Markets & The Fed Entering Uncharted Territories
Guy Adami and Liz Thomas discuss the immediate market reactions following a disappointing August jobs report. They delve into the implications of this data, including the anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the potential impact on the labor market and inflation. Liz gives her opinion on when unemployment could tip from “good for the market… to bad”. The conversation covers historical context, the roles of small-cap stocks, the influence of federal policies, and the reactions of various sectors, including gold and healthcare. They also touch on the global economic outlook, and the potential for a recession.
Learn more about our sponsor CME Group, iConnections, and SoFi.
