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RiskReversal Recap: Tuesday, Sept 2nd
RiskReversal Media
September 02, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks fell across the board today as Treasury yields, especially on the long end, were higher. A mix of catalysts affected sentiment, but the bottom line was we saw a carry over from Friday’s selling into a crucial stretch for the market. Still, the indices closed well off their intraday lows, so there was no panic. On the day: SPX -0.7%, QQQ -0.8% and IWM -0.6%.
Elsewhere, yields were higher, with the US10YY back to 4.27%. Gold can’t be stopped, up another +2%, oil was also higher by +2%. DXY was higher, now back to $98.33. The VIX closed at 17.19 was over 19 earlier in the day.
After hours: A ruling on the $GOOGL anti-trust has its stock +5% and $AAPL +3% after hours. SPY and QQQ, which both both closed well are also up a good chunk on that news. [CNBC story]
MRKT Call: Dan and Guy discuss today’s action to start the month and this morning’s news and data. Carter joins to discuss all things macro, including yields, Gold, SPX and whether the “market is full”.
RiskReversal Pod: Dan & Guy chat with Wilfred Frost, host of The Master Investor Podcast who also shares some snippets from his recent interview with Tom Lee of Fundstrat.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Dow closes down about 250 points to kick off September on tariff worries, rising bond yields (CNBC)
Treasury yields jump on prospect of U.S. having to refund tariff money; 30-year yield tops 4.97% (FactSet)
Analysts Increasing EPS Estimates Slightly for S&P 500 Companies for Q3 (FactSet)
Companies Reap Cash Savings From Trump’s New Tax Law (WSJ)
US manufacturing activity contracts for sixth straight month in August: 'It's survival' (Yahoo Finance)
AI Euphoria to Fuel 20% S&P Rally by End-2026, Evercore ISI Says (Bloomberg)
Anthropic raises $13 billion funding round at $183 billion valuation (CNBC)
US Pulls TSMC’s Waiver for China Shipments of Chip Supplies (Bloomberg)
Musk looks past Tesla sales slump, says 80% of value will come from Optimus (CNBC)
EV Deals Are Booming Ahead of Tax-Credit Expiration (WSJ)
Amazon cracks down on Prime free shipping sharing (CNBC)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Today’s rough start to September isn’t surprising as it’s a historically volatile month. But the action the past two days does puts some extra weight on this week’s data, with Friday’s jobs report the main event (We’ll also get early reads like ADP before then).
Bigger picture, equities were priced near perfection at the highs and benefitted greatly with the late Summer low index vol. The SPX’s recent failure to clear 6500 likely just cemented that level as resistance. Therefore some risk/reward analysis of the portfolio makes sense at these levels.
Over the next two weeks, if jobs and inflation data come in solid, concerns could fade quickly and the market likely overtakes that 6500 level. If just ok, that 6500 level likely continues as resistance. And finally, if the economic outlook wobbles ahead of the September Fed meeting, we may be entering a choppier stretch. One where the market’s “buy the dip” playbook gets tested due to such tight overhead supply to the upside, with much less obvious near term support to the downside.
Wednesday, Sept 3rd
Pre-market: DLTR 8%, M 8%
10am - JOLTS Job Openings
10am - Factory Orders
2pm - Beige Book
After-hours: CRM 7%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode:
Dan and Guy discuss today’s action to start the month and this morning’s news and data. Carter joins to discuss all things macro, including yields, Gold, SPX and whether the “market is full”.
Analysis - SPX, US10YY, US30YY, TLT, GLD, GDX, CRM, LULU, NVDA, CRWV, UPS, FDX
Your Questions:
ptor gjestland - My largest short is CRWV a 75/50 Oct/Dec calendar put spread... do you have a downside target?
WAVY MCFLY - GUY! Talk to me, GOLD GOLD GOLD! Are Gold Miners the new MAG7? Look at their performance this year! Amazing! Thank you!
Jack CF - Which is a better buy? UPS or FDX?
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Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode:
Dan & Guy chat with Wilfred Frost, host of The Master Investor Podcast. Wilf discusses his career, why he started his latest podcast and shares some snippets from his recent interview with Tom Lee of Fundstrat.
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