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Yields Higher, Stocks Lower on CPI. Nvidia Keeps it From Being Worse.
RiskReversal Recap: July 15, 2025
RiskReversal Media
July 15, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Today flipped the recent trading script to some extent. Instead of pre-market weakness on trade headlines followed by intra-day dip-buying, we saw a little bit of the opposite. Positive trade headlines on Nvidia and China had stocks bid pre market. That looked like it may hold with a CPI that on the surface was in line. But sellers emerged during the day, as treasury yields rose, with NVDA and other chip strength perhaps masking what could have been a much worse day. Small caps were particularly affected by yields. On the day: SPX -0.4%, QQQ +0.1% and IWM -2.0%
Elswehere, as mentioned the US10YY is now just shy of 4.50%, the dollar rose alongside with DXY now $98.63. Gold was lower, as was oil. The VIX was slightly higher amidst sector divergence, now 17.38.
Notable Winners Today: NVDA +4%, AMD +6.4%, FSLR +7%, C +3.7%, TTD +6.6%
Notable Losers Today: JPM -1%, WFC -5.5%, BLK -6%, NEM -5.7%, REGN -4%, BIIB -4.2%, MRK -2.6%
After hours: Stocks didn’t have a great final few minutes into the close and it’s carrying over slightly after hours with SPY -0.1% and QQQ -0.2%. Basically at the lows of the day for SPY.
MRKT Call: Breaking down the CPI report and asset reactions including stocks, bonds and the dollar. JPM’s earnings. Nvidia’s China news. Trades in XLF and KWEB.
RiskReversal Pod: Gene Munster joins Dan to discuss why the AI trade is alive and thriving and whether the decline in S&P 500 and NASDAQ presented a generational buying opportunity for tech stocks.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Dow falls 300 points on earnings, inflation concerns; Nvidia boosts Nasdaq (CNBC)
Inflation Hit 2.7% in June, in Line With Expectations (WSJ)
Bessent Suggests Powell Should Leave Fed Board in May (Bloomberg)
JPMorgan’s Surprise Dealmaking Gain Shows Tariff Fear Easing (Bloomberg)
Citigroup Traders Post Bumper Haul on Trump’s Tariff Upheaval (Bloomberg)
Nvidia, AMD to Resume Some AI Chip Sales to China in US Reversal (Bloomberg)
China’s GDP Beat Masks Fragile Demand, Sparking Outlook Concerns (Bloomberg)
Google to invest $25 billion in data centers and AI infrastructure across largest U.S. electric grid (CNBC)
Want to Trade Amazon on a Crypto Exchange? The Price Might Be Off by 300% (WSJ)
Amazon-backed Anthropic rolls out Claude AI for financial services (CNBC)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Stocks opened higher on upbeat trade headlines—specifically, news that Nvidia secured approval to expand chip sales in China, but under the surface as the day progressed, the tone in equities was less upbeat. While the CPI met expectations, the details showed signs of tariff-related price pressures. Treasury yields eventually moved higher once that became clear, and that shift in rates weighed on stocks.
Nvidia’s strength, along with gains in other chip names, helped mask some of the weakness. Outside of semis, the banks were mostly lower on earnings reports and small caps took the brunt of it, as one would expect with the 10YY approaching 4.50%. All in all, not a disaster—but definitely a different feel from the grind-higher days we’ve gotten used to recently. Tomorrow sees more bank earnings, ASML and JNJ pre-market, as well as PPI, which should be interesting.
One other note, implied vols mostly took today’s divergence in stride. Something we mentioned in prior notes to be entirely possible into a big week of earnings, inflation data, and trade headlines that sees large sector divergence but with broader indices mixed to flat. That’s been a theme in recent days and is something to watch for signs of change should we see a day where everything moves in unison. For tomorrow:
Wednesday, July 15th
Pre-market: ASML 5.5%, BAC 3.4%, GS 3.8%, MS 3.2%, JNJ 2.3%
8:30am - PPI
9:15pm - Fed Hammack Speech
2pm - Beige Book
After-hours: UAL 7%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Playing For A Move Higher In Chinese Web Stocks ($KWEB)
Breaking down the CPI report and asset reactions including stocks, bonds and the dollar. JPM’s earnings. Nvidia’s China news. Trades in XLF and KWEB. |
Analysis: SPX, DXY, TLT, KRE, JPM, XLF, NVDA, AMD, KWEB, BABA, NEM, COST, WMT, XRT, NVO
Robinhood Live Trades: Rolling XLF puts to August, Buying a call spread in KWEB
Your Questions:
Gary Webb - Guy, Have you changed your conviction for Yen strengthening v. USD in light of global bond rates rising?
Tom Tom - Baba bottoming out?
C R Taylor - NEM overreaction?
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Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Why The AI Trade Is Alive & Thriving with Gene Munster
Gene Munster joins Dan to discuss why the AI trade is alive and thriving and whether the decline in S&P 500 and NASDAQ presented a generational buying opportunity for tech stocks. |
Dan Nathan and Gene Munster discuss major investment themes in the latest RiskReversal Podcast. They reflect on market conditions from April, evaluating whether the decline in S&P 500 and NASDAQ presented a generational buying opportunity for tech stocks. They discuss the performance of AI-related companies, cloud growth, and CapEx expectations. Gene shares insights on Microsoft, the challenges it faces, and possible market reactions. The conversation also covers Apple's management competence and future AI developments, Tesla's integration with xAI, and its market positioning amidst pricing challenges. Lastly, they touch upon the performance disparities between hardware and software sectors in the AI field.
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