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Zombieland - Stocks End Week Where They Started
RiskReversal Recap: Friday, August 29th
RiskReversal Media
August 29, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Equities were back in the red today, fading from yesterday’s record closing high of 6500. After a down open, the market essentially hovered near 6450 for most of the afternoon before closing 6460. For those keeping score at home, that’s basically unchanged on the week, despite Nvidia, GDP, PCE and more hitting the tape. For today: SPX -0.6%, QQQ -1.2%, -0.7%.
Elsewhere, Gold completed a march to new highs this week, adding another +1% today. Oil was lower, the 10YY closed the week 4.23%. The VIX is back above 15, ending the week 15.38.
Alibaba: +13%, new chip to compete with NVDA in China (Nvidia -3.5%)
Caterpillar: -3.7% after tariff hit warning.
Dell: -9% on weak Q3 EPS guide.
Ulta: -7% even after raising outlook.
Affirm: +9% on earnings/revenue beat.
Autodesk: +9% on strong Q2, higher guidance.
After hours: SPY and QQQ both a tad lower after hours.
RiskReversal Pod: Guy and Dan on Nvidia, Microsoft, Taiwan Semi, Palantir, Salesforce, Adobe, Broadcom and more. Discussing rate-cuts amidst challenges to Fed independence, now vs historical market metrics, and where gold and Bitcoin could go from here.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 retreats from record Friday, notches 4th winning month in a row (CNBC)
"Magnificent 7” Companies Reported Earnings Growth Above 25% for Q2 (FactSet)
Fed’s Waller Sees Quarter-Point Cut in September, Then More (Bloomberg)
US Consumer Spending Rises Firmly Despite Stubborn Inflation (Bloomberg)
Higher Prices Are Coming for Household Staples (WSJ)
Bond Market’s Inflation Gauge Touches Six-Month High on Fed Risk (Bloomberg)
Alibaba Creates AI Chip to Help China Fill Nvidia Void (WSJ)
Investors bet on Cambricon to be China’s next AI champion (FT)
Trump Leans on National Security to Justify Next Wave of Tariffs (WSJ)
US Ends Tariff Exemption for Small Packages, Upending Global E-Commerce (Bloomberg)
WHAT’S NEXT?
The Week That Was
The SPX finally printed above 6500 yesterday. We had been tracking whether a 1-2-3 punch of Jackson Hole, NVDA earnings and this morning’s PCE was enough to get us above that level (which has a lot of overhead supply for the near term). At least for now, the answer is no.
Looking Ahead
Where we go from here is interesting. The market now enters a critical two weeks leading into the September FOMC meeting. That meeting itself is basically a lock for a cut, but the bigger question is what kind of economy is the Fed is cutting into? If inflation is cooling and jobs remain steady, the prospect of the Fed cutting rates with equities at all time highs, and the economy humming is not a scenario you see often. That scenario could fuel a run to 7000+ in SPX into year-end. Certain versions of that scenario could even create euphoria/bubble type action into year end.
On the other side of the coin, if employment starts flashing warning signs (NFP is Friday), and inflation looks dodgy (CPI/PPI is Sept 10/11), we could see selling pressure even before the Fed meets. Rate cuts into a softening economy (especially one with stubborn inflation) isn’t historically bullish, especially at all time highs.
Either way, the next two weeks may well set the tone for the rest of 2025. We’ll be discussing this more over the next week as we approach the jobs number. Check your inbox on Sunday for a preview of that and all of next week’s other catalysts.
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: No Bounce, No Bueno: Hidden Cracks in Bitcoin & the “Risk On” Facade
Dan Nathan and Guy Adami on the S&P 500 at all-time highs, the low VIX, Dollar, and Treasury yields. Nvidia’s earnings took center stage this week but they also dig into recent action in Microsoft, Taiwan Semi, Palantir, Salesforce, Adobe, Broadcom and more. Then, rate-cut pressures amidst challenges to Fed independence. Finally, comparisons now to historical market metrics, and where gold and Bitcoin could go from here.
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