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A Broad Based Rally and a Collapse in Implied Volatility
RiskReversal Recap: November 24, 2025
RiskReversal Media
November 24, 2025
MARKET WRAP
There's still plenty that can happen in the days ahead, but today finally brought a bit of relief after the recent stretch of equity volatility—a broad, steady green day across the indices without the whipsaw action that’s defined the past two weeks. With that, implied volatility collapsed and may now act as a more stabilizing force than last week. On the day: SPX +1.6%, QQQ +2.6%, and IWM +1.9%.
Elsewhere, the US10YY continues its move back towards 4%, now 4.04%. Gold with a move higher, Oil with a bounce. DXY hovering just above $100 while BTC may have finally seen a real bounce, up +10% since Friday and now just shy of $90k. The VIX is now 20.50, down from 27 Friday morning.
Notable Moves: Nearly every sector was higher today, with consumer staples and energy the only ones in the red. Tech outperformed, led by GOOGL +6.2%, and AVGO +11%. Every Mag7+ name was in the green, with MSFT the relative laggard (but still higher).
After Hours: ZM is higher by about +4% following earnings.
Today’s MRKT Call: Guy and Dan dig into today’s rally, shifting leadership to GOOGL in the AI trade, and a slew of stock-specific moves—from Amazon and META to ORCL, NVDA, and SNDK—while also checking in on banks, healthcare, and retail.
Today’s RiskReversal Pod: Dan and Guy break down the latest market action—from AI leaders like Nvidia to a cooling consumer and shifting rate-cut expectations—while also digging into what recent commentary from industry players and moves in names like Walmart, Oracle, Intel, and Dell signal about the broader economic backdrop.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 rallies, led by Alphabet, as AI trade revives (CNBC)
How the U.S. Economy Became Hooked on AI Spending (WSJ)
Big Tech’s AI Debt Wave Threatening to Swamp Credit Markets (Bloomberg)
Amazon to Spend $50 Billion to Expand AI Services to US Agencies (Bloomberg)
Michael Burry launches newsletter to lay out his AI bubble views after deregistering hedge fund (CNBC)
Trump Weighing Advanced Nvidia Chip Sales to China, Lutnick Says (Bloomberg)
Eli Lilly hits $1 trillion market value, a first in health care, as Novo Nordisk tumbles (CNBC)
SPAC Stocks Are Back in Risky Financial ‘Turducken’ (Bloomberg)
Apple Cuts Jobs Across Its Sales Organization in Rare Layoff (Bloomberg)
WHAT’S NEXT?
With today’s move, we kicked off the holiday-shortened week with a meaningful collapse in implied volatility, just one session removed from monthly options expiration. In other words, today hinted that last week’s outsized swings heavily affected by expiration-related positioning might have now cleared. If the market can navigate the next two days of economic data without getting rattled, we might settle into something closer to a normal trading environment. That doesn’t solve the bigger questions around the AI trade or whether the recently crushed momentum names can stage real recoveries into year end—but for now, today hinted at less chaos ahead. As we mentioned following Friday's not-so-convincing close:
"Looking ahead, Monday seems crucial now with how stocks closed today. If we see a follow through to the upside on Monday that actually holds, next week’s shortened holiday trading could calm things down, with a lot of the option positioning of the past two weeks now expired. However, new lows on Monday would put us right back in the spin cycle. The VIX may be a tell next week: An early week rally that holds, we could see the VIX slide back below 20, which would help stabilize things."
The VIX is now below 21 (after touching 28 late last week). With December rate-cut odds hovering near 80%, the key will be avoiding anything that shakes that’s number back into doubt.
For tomorrow, some delayed inflation data, retail sales as well as the busiest earnings day of this week. Of note, the expected move for tomorrow is about HALF of what the market was pricing for last Thursday and Friday:
Tuesday, Nov 25th (consensus)
Pre-market: BABA 6%, BBY 7%, ADI 5%
8:30am - Sept PPI (0.3%, 2.7%)
8:30am - Sept Retail Sales (0.4%)
10am - Pending Home Sales
After-hours: DELL 8%, WDAY 765%, ADSK 6%, ZS 8%
SPX Expected Move: 0.6%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Google Leads The AI Rebound Rally
Guy and Dan break down today’s rally and the seasonal setup around Black Friday and Cyber Monday. They hit on GOOGL’s emerging leadership in the AI trade, Amazon’s recent volatility and bounce, and whether META’s move higher actually has legs. A look at MSFT’s chart rolls into the damage in ORCL, followed by what’s next for NVDA amid a suddenly louder competitive narrative. They wrap with sharp reversals in names like SNDK, plus a check on the banks, healthcare, and retail.
Analysis - SPX, AMZN, META, MSFT, ORCL, NVDA, SNDK, JPM, KSS, TGT, BBY, WMT
Learn more about our sponsor, Fidelity.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Cautionary Tales: Oracle, Meta & the Unseen Risks of AI Mania
On this episode of the RiskReversal Podcast, hosts Dan Nathan and Guy Adami discuss recent market trends and significant movements, focusing on AI stocks like Nvidia and their earnings impacts. They delve into the consumer landscape through the lens of major retailers like Walmart and the overall health of the consumer amidst rising delinquency rates. The conversation extends to macroeconomic indicators, including the CME Fed Watch tool and rate cut expectations, as well as insights from industry leaders like Harvey Schwartz of the Carlyle Group. The hosts also explore the implications for companies like Oracle, Intel, and Dell in the current economic climate.
Learn more about our sponsor CME Group and iConnections.
