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A Red to Green Reversal Kinda Fails. NVDA Tomorrow.
RiskReversal Recap: Tuesday, Nov 18th
RiskReversal Media
November 18, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Another wild day that saw the SPX trade in about a 1.5% range. It began with another sharp morning selloff, with a real hint of near-term capitulation as the VIX pushed just shy of 26 and the SPX got to roughly -5% from its late-October highs.
A rally ensued that took SPX close to unchanged on the day, but it never did get back in the green, and then completely fizzled in the last hour. While the close was off the lows of the day, it wasn’t exactly the obvious bounce traders were looking for. That leaves SPX a little more than -4% from the highs. All Mag7+ stocks finished red. Those looking for green shoots got a little bit of a bounce in BTC and IWM today. On the day, SPX -0.8%, QQQ -1.2% and IWM +0.3%.
Yields haven’t been doing much at all during this equity sell-off, the US10YY is now 4.12%. Gold hanging near 4k still. Oil hanging near 60. Bitcoin did bounce a little today, but not much of one, now 92.5k. The VIX closed at 24.69.
Notable Gainers: MSTR +5.8%, NFLX +3.5%, BIIB +2.5%, GILD +2.5%, TTWO +2.4%, VLO +3.9%,
Notable Losers: MRVL -5.7%, MU -5.6%, AMZN -4.4%, AMD -4.2%, CRWD -3.1%, NVDA -2.8%, MSFT -2.7%, HD -6%, AMZN -4.4%
After Hours: SPY and QQQ closed badly and they’re both a tick lower after hours.
Today’s MRKT Call: Dan and Guy, live from Florida, break down the weakness in the Mag7, Bitcoin’s slide, and the VIX spike, while highlighting what’s been working, like energy and healthcare, and assessing how much further this pullback could go and what catalysts might make or break the rally into year end.
Today’s RiskReversal Pod: Guy and Liz cover how a potential Japanese stimulus, a weaker yen, rising volatility, and key U.S. data points, from mortgage rates to delayed payrolls and PMIs, are shaping market sentiment, before turning to Bitcoin’s shifting correlations and takeaways from Liz’s recent podcast on dividend investing and personal finance.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Dow drops 400 points, S&P 500 falls for a fourth day as tech slumps, bitcoin briefly dips below $90,000 (CNBC)
The Most Joyless Tech Revolution Ever: AI Is Making Us Rich and Unhappy (WSJ)
AI Bubble and Growth Fears Are Creeping Into US Credit Markets (Bloomberg)
Microsoft and Nvidia to invest up to $15bn in OpenAI rival Anthropic (FT)
Google Seeks to Shake Up Chatbot Race With New Gemini Version (WSJ)
Cloudflare says outage that hit X, ChatGPT and other sites is resolved (CNBC)
Meta Defeats FTC’s Antitrust Case Alleging Social-Media Monopoly (WSJ)
Great Bitcoin Crash of 2025 Has It Lagging Bonds, Gold and More (Bloomberg)
Home Depot cuts earnings outlook as home improvement demand falls short of expectations (CNBC)
S&P 500 Reporting Highest Net Profit Margin in Over 15 Years (FactSet)
WHAT’S NEXT?
As we've been noting, these intraday washouts and potential near term capitualtions keep happening, and none have marked the end of the sell-off. Each VIX spike has inched higher than the last, and today was no exception. If today’s bounce fizzles and we take another leg lower, a VIX print north of 30 on a 6-7% pullback for SPX feels almost inevitable. As we mentioned last week (after two straight Friday bounces):
“If the SPX were to roll over again next week, the VIX spike would likely be even higher… vol begets vol, and each subsequent sell-off may require a higher VIX spike to mark the next capitulation reversal.”
However, here’s where things get tricky in elevated vol. If NVDA delivers tomorrow, or the FOMC minutes raise Dec rate cut odds, the volatility in the other direction could be just as violent. There’s a ton of short gamma that just built up from traders loading up on options near current levels, and with monthly expiration this Friday, a lot of it is very short duration.
We’ve actually seen this setup before: October’s monthly expiration saw similar conditions, with the China rare-earths flare-up sending the VIX to roughly the same area in the upper 20’s. What followed was heavy two-way volatility, that ended in a massive squeeze higher over the following week and change.
Those dynamics are very similar into this Friday, now layered with, FOMC Minutes, NVDA’s report and a delayed jobs number coming in right beforehand. Expect some wild swings into Friday that absolutely includes the potential for a sharp oversold rip higher (that may include a more obvious capitulation with a VIX near 30). Following that we have Thanksgiving week where we could then see vol compress the other way, potentially calming stocks for a bit.
For tomorrow, more consumer/retail names before the open, FOMC Minutes late in the session, then NVDA earnings, but no govt data like housing starts. The SPX expected move is the largest we’ve seen in some time at 1.0%.
Wednesday, October 29th
Pre-market: TGT 9%, TJX 3.5%, LOW 3.7%
Fed Speak: Williams, Miran
2pm - FOMC Minutes
After-hours: NVDA 7%, PANW 7%
SPX expected move: 1.0%
One last note on SPY and QQQ options. NVDA typically reports at about 4:20 eastern, 5 minutes after SPY and QQQ options close. That means unlike SPX options that settle at 4pm for cash, QQQ and SPY options are still at risk of being in the money and assigned in the window after the close for trading, to when the last exercise notice is submitted in the hours after. Be careful if you have option positions expiring tomorrow!
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: The Tech Slump Continues To Weigh On Markets
Dan and Guy are live from Florida breaking down the weakness in the Mag7, Bitcoin, and the spike in the VIX. They hit on what’s actually been working during this stretch — namely energy and healthcare — and dig into the state of the consumer through HD’s earnings. Finally, they look at how much further this pullback could run, and the catalysts into year-end that could either jump-start the momentum again or officially mark the end of the rally.
Analysis - S&P e-mini, QQQ, MSFT, ORCL, AMZN, GOOGL, NVDA, META, VIX, BTC, VLO, AXP, HD
Learn more about our sponsor, CME Group.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Unless You're Winning, You're Losing with SoFi's Liz Thomas
Guy Adami and Liz Thomas of SoFi on the impact of a potential Japanese stimulus on global equities, and the weakening yen, the spike in VIX, mortgage rates and housing affordability, the potential effects of upcoming delayed non-farm payroll reports, and PMI services/manufacturing indices. They then dig into consumer sentiment and Bitcoin's decoupling from gold and its strong correlation with Nasdaq. Plus, Liz shares some insights about her conversation with Jenny Harrington on her own podcast, focusing on dividend investing and personal finance stories.
Learn more about our sponsor SoFi and RBC Capital Markets.
