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- Bad jobs number had traders asking a lot of questions already answered by the bad jobs number.
Bad jobs number had traders asking a lot of questions already answered by the bad jobs number.
RiskReversal Recap: Friday, Sept 5th
RiskReversal Media
September 05, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks gapped to new highs after a weak jobs print caused a drop in treasury yields and and upped rate cuts odds into year end. (AVGO’s earnings/open ai pop added additional fuel). However, traders quickly rethought that initial take and the indices quickly reversed lower. Nothing super ugly, with the SPX rallying a bit into the close and all the drama basically left the market unchanged on the week. The more rate sensitive IWM closed in the green. On the day: SPX -0.3%, QQQ unched, IWM +0.4%.
Elsewhere, the big story is treasury yields with the US10YY now 4.09%. Gold is loving this, notching another new high. The dollar dropped. Oil was lower on growth concerns. The VIX closed the week 15.18.
Notable Gainers: AVGO +9.3%, ENPH +8.3%, ORCL +5%, MU +4.9%, CRM +2.4%
Notable Losers: LULU -18%, AMD -5.9%, IBKR -5.6%, JPM -2.7%, CVX-2.5%, V -2.3%, NKE -2%
After hours: S&P announces additions to the index at 5pm, some names that have been floating around are CVNA, APP, HOOD (and others), so there may be some after hour moves higher or lower based upon that news.
RiskReversal Pod: Guy and Dan welcome Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former Chief Investment Strategist at Bridgewater Associates to talk the dollar, geopolitical risks, defense and utilities, Fed independence, inflation, and planning for tail risks.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 falls, giving up earlier gain, as traders balance economic worries with rate cut hopes (CNBC)
Mortgage rates see biggest one-day drop in over a year (CNBC)
Airline stocks outperform on a down day as White House moves to cancel passenger compensation (CNBC)
Lilly, Novo Sink on FDA List of Foreign GLP-1 Manufacturers (Bloomberg)
OpenAI set to start mass production of its own AI chips with Broadcom (FT)
Banks Ready $38 Billion of Debt for Oracle-Tied Data Centers (Bloomberg)
Anthropic to stop selling AI services to majority Chinese-owned groups (FT)
WHAT’S NEXT?
The Week That Was
Traders initially took the Jobs miss as good news. Yields dropped and odds of multiple Fed cuts by year-end shot higher. (Also as mentioned, AVGO’s gap higher made three days in a row that a Mag8 name has put the market on its back.) But those new highs didn’t last long as a bad jobs number is still a bad jobs number. As we mentioned in yesterday’s preview:
A weak report is trickier—markets might initially cheer the chance of a more aggressive Fed, especially in rate-sensitive sectors, but it’d be interesting what would happen after that initial euphoria.
Despite today’s reversal, stocks were basically flat for the second straight week, and backing the chart up, we’ve basically been chopping right beneath 6500 for close to a month now. We’ve seen plenty of worry, some brief flashes of euphoria, but in the end we’re still kinda going sideways. The 6500 level continues to act as both resistance on the way up and seemingly a magnet, keeping sell-offs from getting out of hand (thus far).
Looking Ahead
Next week brings the next real test (ahead of the September FOMC) meeting with fresh PPI and CPI prints. As we’ve mentioned in this space recently, vol is likely too low right now, a result of the sideways action the past 3 weeks. That could last… but it’s hard to envision a situation where nerves to the downside weren’t at least tested over the next two weeks, or, if inflation data looked favorable into the FOMC, some FOMO emerged, especially in sectors that will benefit from lower rates. Bottom line, we’ll have a pretty good sense of what kind of economy the Fed is cutting rates into by the time the Sept meeting rolls in.
We’ll be back this weekend with a preview of next week and some thoughts on volatility into year-end.
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Rebecca Patterson: Will AI Do More Harm Than Good for U.S. Growth?
Dan Nathan and Guy Adami welcome Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former Chief Investment Strategist at Bridgewater Associates. They discuss a range of topics, including the current state of the stock and bond markets, the implications of a weakening dollar, and the ongoing impact of geopolitical and policy issues on market stability. Rebecca also shares insights into her diversified investment strategies, emphasizing sectors like global defense and utilities. The conversation shifts to the role of AI in the future job market and corporate strategies, along with a critical look at potential scenarios involving the U.S. Federal Reserve's independence and its implications for both inflation and economic policy. They conclude with a discussion on the importance of planning for tail risks in today's volatile economic environment.
Timecodes 0:00 - Intro 4:05 - Macro 11:10 - Gold & The Dollar 17:20 - Trust The Data 19:50 - Crypto 22:40 - Tech 25:50 - Bear Market Conditions 28:05 - Fed Independence 32:05 - AI Job Cuts 41:40 - Glass Half Full
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