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Stocks End Crazy Quarter on High Note
RiskReversal Recap: June 30, 2025
RiskReversal Media
June 30, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks climbed further into record territory Monday, capping off both the month and a crazy quarter on a final strong note. The session was largely quiet, with much of the strength coming on the open before mostly sideways action. But there was some noticeable volatility into the close, likely tied to month- and quarter-end flows. On the day: SPX +0.5%, QQQ +0.9% and IWM +0.1%.
Elsewhere, the US10YY continues lower, with today’s 4.24% the lowest since late April. DXY is now below $96.82 a multi year low and down from $110 in January. Gold bounced a bit today, while Oil remains near $65.
After hours: Both SPY and QQQ are lower by about 0.1% after hours, following some end of month buy imbalances into the bell.
MRKT Call: Carter Worth joins Dan to check the charts. Discussion of stocks at an all time high, and the potential for a late 90’s type speculative era.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 rises to another record to wrap up second-quarter comeback (CNBC)
European Markets Are Becoming Increasingly Difficult to Ignore (Bloomberg)
Musk Fumes as Trump Tax Bill Cuts Electric Vehicle Credits (Bloomberg)
OpenAI Leadership Responds to Meta Offers: ‘Someone Has Broken Into Our Home’ (Wired)
Chanos Warns of AI Pullback, ‘Absurd Bitcoin Treasury Companies (Bloomberg)
Canada rescinds digital services tax after Trump cuts off U.S. trade talks (CNBC)
Trump says he has group of ‘very wealthy people’ ready to buy TikTok (CNBC)
Bond Traders Basking in Gains Bet Fed Will Fuel Winning Run (Bloomberg)
JPMorgan traders with prescient ‘bulled up’ call now expect ‘wave of new all-time highs’ (CNBC)
More S&P 500 Companies Issuing Positive EPS Guidance for Q2 Than Average (FactSet)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Despite the lack of actual intraday volatility, implied volatility moved higher to start the day. The VIX ticked up even as equities started he day solidly higher, a divergence that may simply have been driven by a typical post-weekend adjustment or anticipation of end-of-quarter positioning unwinds. Still, as mentioned in Sunday’s note, it’s a dynamic worth watching. If we start to see implied vol higher on green days for stocks, it could be an early sign of frothy sentiment building — the kind that often leads to a late-stage squeeze higher followed by sharper, more two-sided volatility. There are some signs in individual names already (as discussed in today’s MRKT Call).
For now, though, the market continues to reward dip-buyers, even intraday, but with the end of the quarter now past us, much of the downside support from the options market is gone, and each new high takes us into territory almost entirely free of significant overhead/resistance as well. Although this is a holiday/Summer trading week, we have the first day of the month/quarter tomorrow, central banker speak, as well as a few days of labor market data pouring in that could create larger than expected moves in low volume trading.
Tuesday, July 1st
9:30am - Powell, Bailey and Ueda Speeches
10am - ISM Manufacturing
10am - JOLTS job openings
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: All-Time Highs For Stocks... What's Next?
Carter Worth joins Dan to discuss stocks at an all time high, and the potential for a late 90’s type speculative era (AI driven) |
Carter Worth joins Dan to discuss stocks at an all time high, and the potential for a late 90’s type speculative era (AI driven). Carter looks at what percentage of stocks are at news highs, with the indices at new highs. And discussion around some of the speculative names showing signs of mania already.
Analysis: NDX, SPX, SPW, MID, RTY, BKX, KRE, AXP, MU, AXP, RBLX, AAPL, TSLA, NKE, XLE
Your Questions:
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