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Stocks Higher. Cool PPI Wins the Day over White House v Powell.
RiskReversal Recap: July 16, 2025
RiskReversal Media
July 16, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks started the day in the green, boosted by a cooler-than-expected PPI. But the calm didn’t last. Later in the morning, a report surfaced suggesting Fed Chair Jerome Powell might “soon” be fired. Equities quickly sold off, with SPX touching 6200. Roughly 30 minutes later, the story was denied, and stocks snapped back, ending the day well into positive territory. On the day: SPX +0.3%, QQQ +0.1%, and IWM +1.1%.
Elsewhere, yields were lower on PPI but spiked on the Powell news, with the long-end particularly worrisome. They did cool off after the denial, with the US10YY ending the day at 4.46%. The dollar closed lower, with DXY now $98.30. Both probably would have had better days had the nonsense from the White House not happened. The VIX is now 17.15. Both Oil and Gold finished slightly higher.
After hours: Alcoa AA is higher by about +2% (was higher) while UAL is lower by about -3% on earnings. Both QQQ and SPY are a tick lower from their close.
MRKT Call: Peter Boockvar and Guy on why Japan matters, at what level the 10YY puts equities under pressure, then coverage of the Powell news as it happens and a look at various asset reactions.
RiskReversal Pod: Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy joins Guy to discuss Bitcoin-backed equities, credit instruments, and Bitcoins potential to revitalize capital markets. Also, Saylor's take on the bitcoin bears.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 rises in volatile session as Trump denies he is firing Powell (CNBC)
Trump Effect Starts to Show Up in Economy (WSJ)
Hassett Grabs Pole Position in Race to Be Trump’s New Fed Chair (Bloomberg)
US Producer Prices Stagnated on Decline in Services Costs (Bloomberg)
Goldman Posts Best Stock-Trading Quarter in Wall Street History (Bloomberg)
Trump Says Drug Tariffs Probable by Aug. 1, Downplays More Deals (Bloomberg)
ASML Hedges Growth Outlook for 2026 as Trade Wars Weigh on Sales (Bloomberg)
Microsoft’s Copilot Is Getting Lapped by 900 Million ChatGPT Downloads (Bloomberg)
WHAT’S NEXT?
The quick whipsaw gave us a mini stress test of how markets might react if the Powell rumor ever turned into reality: stocks down, yields up—especially on the long end—VIX higher, and the dollar lower. It also gave traders a useful reference point—if you’re curious how any of your positions might respond to that kind of news, scroll through today’s charts around 11:15 a.m. Eastern when the headline hit, and then again around 11:45 when it was walked back.
By the close, markets had largely shaken off the scare, but the intraday swings were a reminder that volatility may be picking up under the surface, even as the broader indices stay relatively flat. As we highlighted last week following a rejection near 6300, it was entirely possible the SPX bounced between 6200 and 6300 for a while even with sector and single stock divergence within. We’ve seen both of those levels tested and rejected in the past few trading days, leaving us close to the middle. That dynamic could hold on SPX into Friday’s expiration, with a breakout of breakdown much more easily attained next week with much of that option backdrop expired. More on that later this week.
Looking ahead, tomorrow brings more data and earnings. Retail Sales and Initial Jobless Claims will headline the macro side, while Taiwan Semi reports before the open and Netflix closes out the day.
Thursday, July 16th
Pre-market: TSM 4%, PEP 3.8%, ABT 4%
8:30am - Retails Sales
8:30am - Initial Jobless Claims
10am - Fed Kugler Speech
1:30am - Fed Cook Speech
After-hours: NFLX 6%, IBKR 4.2%
SPX expected move: 0.5%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Peter Boockvar on Japan, Bitcoin, Yields and more.
Peter Boockvar and Guy break down why Japanese Government Bonds matter right now, and where the U.S. 10-year yield starts to become a real problem for equities. Real-time coverage of the Powell news and how different assets reacted as the news broke on air. A look at Berkshire’s recent underperformance, a preview of upcoming earnings and how concentrated Mag7 names are within S&P consensus numbers. Plus, some thoughts on Bitcoin’s latest move.
Analysis - JGB, DXY, IFUS, US10YY, Gold, BRK, BTC
FactSet / John Butters - Of the blended S&P earnings estimate, how much is the Mag 7 vs the other 493?
Learn more about our sponsor, CME Group.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Michael Saylor on Bitcoin’s Future
Guy Adami welcomes Michael Saylor, executive chairman and co-founder of MicroStrategy. Saylor shares updates since December, highlighting MicroStrategy's significant Bitcoin investments and the firm’s strategy, owning over 600,000 BTC. The conversation covers key developments including SEC's ETF approvals, fair value accounting, and bank support for crypto custody. Saylor discusses the broader acceptance and enthusiasm for Bitcoin from Wall Street and the current administration, as well as the rise of Bitcoin treasury companies. He outlines the financial strategies his company employs, such as issuing Bitcoin-backed equities and credit instruments, emphasizing the potential benefits of Bitcoin in revitalizing capital markets. The podcast also touches on Saylor's views on the bear case for Bitcoin, the impact of regulatory clarity, and future strategic opportunities in global financial markets.
Timecodes 0:00 - Milestones 12:30 - Dollar De-Valuation 15:10 - USA As Crypto Leader 18:00 - Flows & BTC Treasury Companies 28:00 - Risks
Learn more about our sponsor Betterment, Current, and RBC Capital Markets.
