MARKET WRAP

Equities saw a decent bounce today, closing out an otherwise ugly week. The major indices finished the day higher: SPX +2.1%, QQQ +2.5%, and IWM +2.5% as well. However, for the week, the SPX declined by 2.3%, with nearly all of that drop occurring during Monday’s sell-off. Yields edged slightly higher again, with the 10-year Treasury now at 4.31%. Oil has rebounded to 67.20, up from $65 and change on Monday. Gold continued to grind at all time highs. The VIX saw a sharp decline into the weekend, now below 22 and down significantly from nearly 30 on Monday. For equities, the key question is whether this bounce is merely a relief rally after the 10% SPX decline or the start of something more constructive.

Vincent Daniel of Seawolf joins Guy and Dan on today’s RiskReversal Pod (below). The discussion covers a ton of topics, including his views on the market, credit, regional banks, gold and more. Enjoy!

MRKT MATRIX: March 14, 2025

Today’s Top Stories:

• Dow bounces 600 points as comeback rally from the week's steep losses gains steam (CNBC)

• S&P 500 just entered a correction. Here’s what usually happens next (CNBC)

• Gold Breaks Through $3,000 as Trump Turbocharges Record Rally (Bloomberg)

• Fed Expected to Cut Rates Twice This Year, Starting in September (Bloomberg)

• A Market Indicator From Early 1900s Is Blaring an Alarm for Stocks (Bloomberg)

• Lowest Number of S&P 500 Companies Citing “Recession” on Earnings Calls in Over 5 Years (FactSet)

• Apple’s Siri Chief Calls AI Delays Ugly and Embarrassing, Promises Fixes (Bloomberg)

• Apple’s iPhone 16e Is Outselling iPhone SE But Won’t Reverse China Slide (Bloomberg)

• Tesla plans Model Y costing at least 20% less to produce to defend China share, sources say (Reuters)

• Billions In AI Capex May Already Be Paying Off. How We Know. (Barron’s)

• US Companies Tell Investors DOGE Cuts Will Ultimately Pay Off (Bloomberg)

• Chuck Schumer says he won’t block Republican funding bill amid Democratic divisions over shutdown strategy (CNBC)

Today’s RiskReversal Podcast is Presented by CME Group, iConnections, and Robinhood

Vincent Daniel: Unplugged with Intent

Guy Adami and Dan Nathan host Vincent Daniel of Seawolf Capital on the RiskReversal podcast. They discuss market dynamics, focusing on volatility, the impact of the Trump administration's economic policy changes, and key financial indicators. Vincent shares his views on the current state of the market, comparing it to historical trends, and provides insights into credit spreads, regional banks, and gold investments. The episode covers the complexities of navigating market uncertainty and the importance of strategic investment approaches. The conversation touches on geopolitical factors, the potential for a recession, and the nuances of investing in emerging markets.

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What’s Next?

Today’s rally brought the indices to the top of the range that’s been established since Monday’s bloodbath. That range was a fairly tight one, from about 5500 to 5640. The consolidation could turn out to be healthy if equities are able to break out above (and hold) that range early next week. Any slide back to yesterday’s lows will have market participants on edge (and the VIX back to the mid 20’s). Circling back to something covered in this space earlier this week, NVDA continued its impressive move higher today. It’s worth watching as it began its bounce from recent lows well before the rest of the market did. It is now at its highest level since March 3rd. Can it serve as a leader with other mega cap to follow, or is it just a one-off showing where traders will look for quick bounce trades? We’ll find out more next week.

Speaking of next week, the FOMC meeting isn’t expected to bring a rate change, but may offer insights into the Fed’s current psychology. We’ll be back on Sunday with a preview of next week’s trading, levels to keep in mind in both directions, some insight into option market structure, previews of economic catalysts, earnings reports and more. Check your inbox Sunday evening!

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