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Unched Expiry Day Ends Positive Week
RiskReversal Recap: July 18, 2025
RiskReversal Media
July 18, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks spent much of the day going sideways, with the SPX pinned near a heavy cluster of expiring options positions at the 6300 strike. That pinning action left the SPX unchanged on the day, but more importantly kept stocks near all time highs to close the week, despite some more tariff related news (vs the EU) this morning. On the day: SPX unched, QQQ unched and IWM -0.6%
Quiet in other assets with Gold slightly higher, oil slightly lower and DXY slightly lower. The US10YY backed off a bit, now 4.42%. The VIX ended the week at 16.43, almost exactly flat on the week.
Notable Gainers: DELL +6%, CEG +4.3%, TSLA +3.2%, IBM +1.3%
Notable Losers: NFLX -5%, AXP -2.4%, MMM -3.6%, MSTR -6.2%, AMD -2.2%
After hours: Extremely quiet after hours with SPY and QQQ flat.
RiskReversal Pod: Dan is joined by Dan Niles with a recap of his recent mid-year market update. The conversation covers the U.S.-China race in AI, macroeconomic trends, tariffs, Nvidia, Microsoft, and the potential overbuild in AI infrastructure and future market corrections.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Dow closes more than 100 points lower after report says Trump seeks at least 15% tariff on EU imports (CNBC)
Donald Trump pushes for 15%-20% minimum tariff on all EU goods (FT)
Fed’s Waller Hints at July Dissent as He Makes Case for Rate Cut (Bloomberg)
S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: July 18, 2025 (FactSet)
Netflix posts earnings beat as revenue grows 16% in second quarter (CNBC)
Crypto Market Value Tops $4 Trillion as Stablecoin Bill Passes (Bloomberg)
Chevron defeats Exxon in dispute over Guyana oil assets, clearing path for Hess acquisition (CNBC)
Amazon cuts some jobs in cloud computing unit as layoffs continue (CNBC)
WHAT’S NEXT?
As mentioned in yesterday’s email, today had the possibility of an SPX pin near the 6300 level into monthly expiration and that’s exactly what we got. For the week we saw SPX +0.6% and new all time highs made. There was plenty of underlying churn in individual sectors and names, but a lot of it cancelled out, aided by an outsized effect from expiring options. Looking back even further, the SPX remains in a two-week consolidation zone between 6200 and 6300. That consolidation could get resolved after today’s expiration as some of that mechanical pinning pressure lifts, potentially opening the door for a more decisive move towards the end of next week. While next week doesn’t bring a particularly heavy slate of economic data, it does bring a slew of earnings reports. Wednesday is the highlight when Alphabet and Tesla report.
And looking ahead even more: the August 1st tariff “deadline.” While previous deadlines have proven useless, it’s possible this one could be more real. With just under two weeks to go, it wouldn’t be surprising to see headlines ramp up. That adds one more potential catalyst to take stocks out of the recent range, either way.
We’ll be back this weekend with a more in depth preview of the week. Check your inbox Sunday!
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode:
Dan Nathan welcomes Dan Niles, founder and portfolio manager at Niles Investment Management. They discuss Niles' approach to investment transparency and review his recent mid-year market update. The conversation covers the U.S.-China race in AI technology, macroeconomic trends, and the impact of tariffs. Niles highlights the performance and strategies of major tech companies including Nvidia, Microsoft, and their implications on the market. They also explore the potential overbuild in AI infrastructure and future market corrections. Additionally, Niles provides insights on the significance of macroeconomic indicators like debt-to-GDP ratios and the importance of valuations, emphasizing the interconnectedness of global markets.
Dan Niles on X: https://x.com/DanielTNiles
Dan's Website: https://www.nilesinvestmentmanagement..
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